But but in terms of what you were saying earlier about perhaps if I understood you wrote about this, not even necessarily being the main item at the top of Boris Johnson's agenda, that being probably covid and dealing with covid at the moment. This allows customs authorities to share data to tackle customs fraud. But it does it does start to look quite difficult. But all sorts of creative solutions are now being discussed in terms of how that can be got passed. I think in a way, it's a complicated thing, because although we keep hearing that there's zoning in on the landing zone for these other issues, the problem is that you you need to unlock fish to allow the British side to be more flexible on the level playing field and governance. When deals are made, it tends to be scuppered by drama and fireworks in Westminster. We'll probably have a vast variety of things that come from Britain and it may even change the shops themselves. The government is planning to put the offending clauses, the treaty break and clauses back into that bill, which the Lords took out. But, yeah, Martin is keen for it to move on and start anew. So I think there's no doubt that of all the 27 EU member states, Ireland's most deeply dreads the idea that something like that would happen, that the thing would fall apart and that we wouldn't have a deal. How did you phase things in? Dennis, just to be absolutely clear that to wrap it up, you're saying that there needs to be some quite positive signs emerging in the first day or two of next week, Monday or Tuesday of next week? An opening for draining off water, as from a floor or the roof of a building. Yeah. But what we don't know about that is how the ports are going to cope with that. But for the moment, we leave it on thanks to to Simon, to Dennis and Naomi, thanks to our producer, Declan Conlon. And fishermen are a little bit like that as well, because they can literally blockade trade, they can blockade trade in and out of ports. And I think to the extent that EU states are still paying attention to this, there are a lot there are a lot of them who who are tempted into thinking things like, well, you know, if this is what they want, let them try it out and see how they like it, you know? So I think the people who are more likely to vote against it are the bill cashers, the Bernard Jenkins, the sort of paleo Brexiteer is in a way. And he also says we want fishing to be tied into a bigger deal. So, for example, you've got the internal market bill, you've got the finance bill, you've got all of this. So we'll have to see what happens. In order to fix that, a decision has to be taken by the commission, which says that basically EU UK regulations are more or less adequate and similar to the EU's. Please see our Privacy Notice for details of your data protection rights. Live event: Join Hugh, Jennifer Bray, Jennifer O’Connell, Fintan O'Toole and Pat Leahy as they look back on this remarkable year in a live Irish Times Inside Politics event at 7pm on Thursday, December 10th. per 1 (skÅ­p′ər) n. 1. Now, we've heard from from Denis, among others, that, you know, that those bonds have been frayed a little bit by events of the last few years. But Irish fishermen aren't happy with the 18 percent because, for example, if it was a lot of mackerel, Irish fish fishing fleet catches an awful lot of mackerel in UK waters, more than 60 percent. If the Commission has its way, the entire deal will be scuppered. So if there is even a thin deal that might free up things and make things easier when it comes to those checks that are required on January 1st. However, he also acknowledged the potential for “tough compromises”. The other point I'd make is with all of the kind of uncertainty that exists around the talks and the inability to plan, one significant development here in the last week has been that where the Irish can't plan on what's going to come out of the talks, you can plan on alternatives in the very obvious one that's been done in the last few weeks and has been in the planning for quite some time is to bypass Britain. The accord was implemented in the late Nineties to protect the peace in Northern Ireland following the period of violence known as The Troubles. Expand. But the Austrian club have inserted a hoard of other clauses into his deal which could see some clubs pull out of a potential deal, … And they only we reported last week that the French would be seeking in the event of a deal, a substantial portion of the the fund, which is there to ameliorate the effects of Brexit, that the French would be looking for quite a lot of that to cover the effect on their fishing industry. Just another thing to put pressure on the UK with another one concerns the transfer of data. So that's so if you want to know, is this Brexit deal really Brexit fish is one way of measuring it. What they've been saying publicly is that because it's a single framework, that this could be a framework on which you can build something better in the future. I think we need to really I think we need to be having some phone calls later this week. And once Brexit is done, if it is done at the end of this year, the next big item on the agenda in Britain is the union. I think politically there are hopeful for a deal, primarily because no deal situation would just be awful. So I think that actually, you know, if we don't do something by the beginning of next week, then suddenly I think we are into a position where it's going to become more much more difficult even in the short time available to do it. So many happen so many times, you know, whether it was, you know, the DUP picking up the phone to Theresa May or, you know, a sudden rebellion in the House of Commons or whatever, and I wouldn't kind of count your chickens yet. You know, given the two options, one terrible and one catastrophic on the terrible one, if some kind of skitty free trade agreement comes through, they're still going to be red tape. Get tickets to ‘A Year Like No Other’ here: https://www.irishtimes.com/virtual-events/a-year-like-no-other. Michel Barnier, the Grinch Who Stole Christmas from Naomi. SEAFISHING ACCOUNTS for only 0.1% of GDP in Britain and barely 12,000 jobs. The UK has said it would reduce tariffs over subsidies for aerospace firms, and Mr Lighthizer said he hoped tariffs on Scottish whisky could be lowered. And so I do think that that it's actually very difficult for him to do one without quite a big concession from the Europeans on fisheries. So look forward to seeing you there. And so he has been lobbying pretty hard for a substantial amount of that five billion euro that was earmarked to help states hard hit for Brexit to go to the French fishing industry. Yes. Because, I mean, Boris Johnson had the biggest rebellion of his government so far against his new restrictions, which he's just introduced, the new tiers that only happened yesterday. Approve transcripts and let your opinions be heard. Like, we'll have to see if the British supermarkets even choose to stay in Ireland and whether it's kind of still worth it for them. Speaking to MEPs on Wednesday, the president of the European Commission warned that the long-running disagreement on how to manage post-Brexit fishing rights could still scupper the … Even say if we're talking about the Northern Ireland protocol, you can face that kind of thing in if there is some kind of a deal, if you actually fallen out in, you know, in discordant kind of way, that's all much more difficult, which is why I think it's important in a way that the Europeans, those European states that believe that a little bit of a few months in the cooler would do the British no harm at all, and they'd be much more amenable partners if they experienced what disruption was like in real life. U.S. President-elect Joe Biden speaks after his election victory was confirmed, President Trump is entering the final few weeks of his term, Piers Morgan says Trump 'living his worst nightmare' after attack, Jill Biden savagely mocked for 'status anxiety' in doctor title row, Boris Johnson is locked in tough negotiations with the EU, Joe Biden vows to take Pfizer coronavirus vaccine in public NEXT WEEK, Ivanka Trump told 'get packing' after sharing rare White House photo, Hunter Biden: US diplomat admitted 'concern' over Ukraine energy role, EU are you watching? So if there are tariffs, that is a huge headache for businesses to bear. There's quite a lot of talk about this is going to be a thin deal, but actually, no. I think of Boris Johnson can't get a deal that he thinks he can sell on fisheries. I mean, it's difficult to know what the dynamics are like inside the room. So fishermen or fisherwomen are a little bit like taxi drivers in that they can be extremely effective in advocating for their own economic interests, and that's partly to do with the resources they have available to them. So they're very good at striking. Anyway, we'll leave it there. So there is there's a lot of restlessness on his own backbenchers. And so I think it's worth just pointing that out in terms of, you know, probably the kind of economy that we've been used to will change. But but regardless of that doneness, maybe we could actually just come back to the core question. They definitely are. What complicates it is that unlike everything else in these negotiations, it's not a straightforward negotiation between the Europeans and the British. No new idea of how things are going to work when it comes to imports, exports, VAT tax and systems basically on goods moving through ports. So in many European capitals, taxi drivers have a quite protected industry, and that's because they can physically park their taxis in the middle of the road and cause a lot of disruption. So a Labour government comes in and maybe says, OK, this is a very decent economic relationship. It's a nationalist project and as such, most people who voted for Brexit didn't vote for Brexit because they thought they would be better off in the short term. They want fishing to be tied to all the other things so that it can be used as leverage to continue to get access. And there seems to be quite a lot to figure out at what is the real cut off and proper never to be moved beyond the deadline that we're working to. I said at the top of the podcast, you know, we've got four weeks while 31 days, no less than 30 days, 29 days to go. And it accounts for a huge share of the Irish catch. ‘If you're asking whether this scuppers the deal, the answer is absolutely not.’ ‘And a growing environmentalist movement in the country has already scuppered a leading mining project.’ ‘Fifteen … No doubt. Obviously, as you know, Naomi has been described as an awful lot of loose ends that haven't been wrapped up. So it basically cuts a lot of firms out of the EU single market. I mean, you know, Britain was a convenient kind of Eurosceptic when when it was still in the European Union. You face them out, the various things you can do with money. Remember, you can contact us a politics podcast, Irish Times dot com. But, yeah, they do. If I could point something out as well, just about the fishing industry. And they've been hearing noises about, you know, divergence and independent coastal state and all this kind of stuff which kind of alarms them. So I just I think, on the other hand, there are there is a real political deadline in that these next couple of days are very important because if you get into next week without really closing in on a deal, first of all, the internal market bill comes back from the House of Lords to those commons. So let's say there are is this bare bones or thin deal, whatever, where you want to describe it, that might take the political heat out of the situation. I mean, today I spent most of today listening to a tour of this committee hearings where the kind of takeaways from that were a deal is going to be terrible and a no deal is catastrophic. But it's up to us to negotiate with them rather than the way that Norway does. So it is puzzling that this industry could yet scupper the chances of a Brexit deal with the European Union. You know, it would wreck the atmosphere at a crucial moment. 0. What about that, Denis? Mr Johnson said “there is every opportunity of a deal”. So I think if there are is difficulties over the coming months, if there is no deal, you're going to see much more direct contact and direct transport transport routes between Ireland and Europe. And obviously the choice of Dunkirk, the irony of that and the significance of Dunkirk in British military history is not lost on people on the choice of that route. That sounds a bit technical, but what basically means is, for example, if you have a meat plant in, let's say, Cavern and they've got someone in Fermanagh who's doing their payroll, that would suddenly become much more difficult because you can't send their personal details of people's names and bank accounts and addresses over the border anymore. Somebody has to move first and nobody wants to move first and, you know, and it's all going to come down to the next the next couple of days. So in that sense, it's it's much more important than the money involved. And then obviously other people will fish in these waters. So they've been holding out on doing that. This is can-kicking, of course, but the EU has a track record of such things, … Sign up to be amongst the first contributors. Synonyms: destroy , ruin , wreck , defeat More Synonyms of scupper COBUILD Advanced English Dictionary . And then when it comes to what we don't know is the tariffs and the quotas. And, you know, to quote Donald Rumsfeld, it's like those kind of known unknowns and unknown unknowns. READ MORE: Joe Biden vows to take Pfizer coronavirus vaccine in public NEXT WEEK. I think it's worth pointing out what that will actually mean as well, just for, you know, Irish people say doing their shopping and the kind of trade that we had with Britain in the past, whether there's a deal or no deal, won't be feasible in the same way anymore because there will be barriers to trade one way or another. Despite PSG’s attempt to scupper the deal with a more lucrative offer and Champions League football, Partey prefers a dream move to the Emirates. There's uncertainty. You can contribute by proofreading the transcript or highlighting the mistakes. And likewise, the Europeans can do something. The known unknowns are that they can they know there's going to be red tape and there's going to be a vast amount of red tape when it comes to customs and food and animal health checks at the ports. If I got a time machine from November 2019 and seen how little attention was being devoted to this, these kind of crucial subjects in the British media and perhaps in other media as well, European media, too, I would have been very, very surprised. There is a no deal and under no deal situation. I think the problem is that, you know, all kinds of things happen. See today's front and back pages, download the newspaper, And we've got elections coming up in Scotland in May and that could lead to a chain of events that could lead to a second referendum. Or alternatively, you can find the same link pinned at the top of my Twitter feed. An Taoiseach, Micheál Martin, T.D during his visit to Trinity … But I think this is in a way, the crucial thing about the difference between a deal or no deal. This transcript was automatically transcribed, so mistakes are inevitable. With just four weeks until the official end of the transition period on December 31st, we still don’t know if a trade agreement will be reached. But even if he has a substantial rebellion, it's fairly clear that the Labor Party is moving towards approving the deal, that certainly all of those close to customer are suggesting that they believe that it's in their political interest to approve the deal. Documents seen by Politico shed light on the state of negotiations between the western allies. Naomi, do you agree with that timeline? Politico described these as “significant differences”. The EU member states are meeting in Brussels next week for summit. Whereas if you have no deal, then obviously you have everything that goes with that and and things fall apart. Yeah, I mean, I've seen it suggested, Naomi, that, you know, if this thing isn't going to happen, it'll be because of a cock up or running out of time or just, you know, an overestimation on one side or another of how far the other one can be pushed on. Bundesliga star is perfect profile for Pirlo but his wage demands might scupper a deal November 18, 2020 - 3:00 pm David Alaba will likely be the top free agent that Juventus signs when the summer transfer … Irish Times Inside Politics. So, I mean, we've focused a lot on on the UK and the Irish perspective on the UK negotiations with the EU as a whole. 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